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Prediction for CME (2024-01-21T00:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-01-21T00:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28663/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME seen to the E/NE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and after a data gap in STEREO A COR2 imagery. This CME overlaps partially with the faint CME seen to the E/SE starting at 2024-01-20T23:12Z. The source of this CME is a large filament eruption and associated flaring seen in AR13559. The filament sat along the lower boundary of this active region, stretching from ~N20E32 to N25E50 and is centered around N20E41. | [PRELIMINARY] CME Arrival Note: potential combined arrival of the CME seen at 2024-01-20T09:24Z and this CME beginning around 16:00Z with B_total increase to ~14 nT. This arrival appears to be followed by a solar sector boundary crossing starting around 2024-01-23T19:30Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-01-22T16:01Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-23T22:11Z (-10.72h, +10.76h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2024/01/21 00:30Z
Plane of Sky 1: 06:20Z; 31.5Rsun; ENE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 15:10Z; 31.5Rsun; WSW Direction
POS Difference: 8:50
POS Midpoint: 10:45Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 10:15

Numeric View/Impact Type: 2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.8
Travel Time: ~6.8 * 10:15 = 69:41

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-01-23T22:11Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time: 5%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5

Lead Time: 21.65 hour(s)
Difference: -30.17 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-01-21T18:22Z

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